Cape Cod Market Report: Q3 2016

Cape Cod Market Report for Q3 2016

Cape Cod Real Estate Strong Again in Q3

The Median Price was UP! The number of Sales was UP! The Dollar Volume was UP!  2016 “might” be a record-breaking year. For all the info about Q3, and my Q4 forecast, view my Q3 Market Report.

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Report Data* for single family homes, in Barnstable County, listed on Cape Cod and Islands MLS.

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 Complete text for this report:

 

Intro:

Hi, I’m Bill Silver. I’m a realtor with Cape Cod Associates in lovely downtown Harwich Port. Welcome to my Q3 Cape Cod Real Estate Market Report and Forecast.

Dollar Volume:

Dollar Volume is the Total Sold Dollars for the quarter.

The Dollar Volume in Q3 was $626 million – or to be exact:  $626 million – 254 thousand – and 269 dollars. Quarter-to-Quarter, this is DOWN 7.7% from the $678 million  in Q2. More interesting and more important is that Year-to-Year – Dollar Volume was UP 9.6% from Q3 2015.

Dollar Volume History:

This chart shows the yearly dollar volume from 1999 through 2015. At two billion dollars the 2015 dollar volume is 11% below the highest year – 2004. But, on the good side, the 2015 dollar volume is 62% higher than the most recent low year – 2009.

Median Sold Price:

The median sold price in Q3 was $385 thousand dollars. Quarter-to-Quarter, this median price was UP 3.8% from Q2. More interesting and more important is that the Year-to-Year median price was UP 4.1% from Q3 2015.

Five-Year Price History:

Here are the Quarterly Median Sold Prices since 2012. Year-to-Year, median sold prices have gone UP in 14 of the last 16 quarters. Since Q1 2012, the median sold price has gone UP 20.3%.

Price Indicators:

I also follow three other price indicators.

1: The total number of listings Under Contract has gone UP in each of the last 6 quarters. This is a key indicator for both Price and Sales.

2The median Price-Per-Square-Foot was UP again in Q3. This is the 4th increase in the last 5 quarters.

3: Although the changes are subtle, Sold Price -to- Original List Price Ratio is an important indicator. It has now gone UP 6 quarters in a row. And, this is the first year since 2005 to have 2 quarters where this ratio was greater than 95%.

Number of Sales:

The number of single family homes sold in Barnstable County in Q3 was 1,136.  After a record-breaking Q2, Q3 sales were Down 16%. As part of the Q1 DiP pattern sales typically go Down from Q2 to Q3Q3 sales were Up a modest 3% from Q3 2015. This marks the 8th quarter in a row that sales have gone Up from the previous year.

Five-Year History:

Here are the Quarterly Sales numbers since 2012.  Quarter-to-Quarter, Sales were down again – the 4th time in the last 5 years – and the 15th time in the last 18 years. After going Down for 4 quarters in row, Year-to-Year, Sales went UP in each of the last 8 quarters.

Sales Indicators:

It’s also interesting to look at three other market indicators that either affect the number of sales, or are affected by the number of sales.

1: Inventory represents the total number of active listings at the end of a quarter. Q3 Inventory was up a tiny bit from Q2 – but Down 7% from Q3 2015. This is due to the high # of Sales in Q2 and Q3. Key point: Inventory does not drive Sales – Sales drives Inventory.

2: Year-to-Year, the Absorption Rate went DOWN in each of the last 5 quarters – this is good thing for sellers. At 8.3 months, this indicator technically says that it’s a buyer’s market. But, is that how you would feel if you were looking to buy a house now?

3: Year-to-Year, the Total number of listings Under Contract went UP in 8 of the last 9 quarters, including each of the last 6 quarters. This result is almost exactly the same as the recent results for the # of Sales.

Forecast Review:

Before I give you my forecast for Q4 – let’s review the previous forecast for Q3. My goal for these forecasts is to be within + or – 5% of the actual result.

My forecast for the median sold price in Q3 was $381,000. The actual result was: $385,000. This was 1.0 % higher than my forecast.

My forecast for number of sales in Q3 was 1,012. The actual number was much higher: 1,136. Strong sales continued in Q3 and the actual number of sales was 12.3% higher than my forecast.

Price Forecast:

I believe that the Median Sold Price will continue to drift upward in Q4. My forecast for the median sold price in Q4 is: $386,000 dollars. Quarter-to-Quarter, this would be UP just 0.3% from Q3. But, Year-to-Year, it would be Up 2.0% from Q4 2015.

Sales Forecast:

Sales are going to be very strong again in Q4. My forecast for the number of sales in Q4 is: 1,294. Quarter-to-Quarter, this will be Up 14% from Q3. And, Year-to-Year, sales would be UP 23% from Q4 2015. If Q4 sales match or exceed my forecast, then 2016 will have achieved the highest number of sales in this century.

Summary:

If you have any questions or comments about this report please call my cell:

508-277-1000 OR send an email to: Bill@BillSilver.com

You can see all my reports at: Bill Silver Reports .com Or, go to my YouTube Channel:

Cape Real Bill

Thanks for watching, and Wishing you Smooth Sailing on the Seas of Life!