Cape Cod Market Report & Forecast 2017 Q1

Cape Cod Market Report & Forecast: Q1 2017

In many ways − the best Q1 − in many years!

Q1 was Record-Breaking hot!!  The Dollar Volume in Q1 2017 was the highest for any Q1 in the history of Cape Cod real estate. There were also several other remarkable results. You can see them all in this new market report!  Enjoy!

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 Complete text for this report:

Intro:

Hi, I’m Bill Silver. I’m a realtor with Cape Cod Associates in lovely downtown Harwich Port. Welcome to my Q1 Cape Cod Real Estate Market Report and Forecast.

Today we’re at the Herring Run on Stony Brook Road in Brewster. Spring is finally here – and we are just around the corner from the light of long summer days. And, these fish are just around the corner from the placid ponds where they were born and they will spawn.

Welcome to my Q1 Cape Cod Real Estate Market Report and Forecast.

Dollar Volume

Dollar Volume is the Total Sold Dollars for the quarter.

The data for this report is for: Single Family Homes – in Barnstable County – listed on Cape Cod and Islands MLS.

The Dollar Volume in Q1 was a record-breaking: $409 million – 267 thousand – and 821 dollars. As expected, Quarter-to-Quarter, this is Down 38% from the $659 million in Q4. More important is that, Year-to-Year – Dollar Volume was UP a whopping 16% from the $354 million in Q1 2016.

The chart shows the Q1 dollar volume for the 18 years of this century. The amazing news is the record-breaking dollar volume in this Q1:

The $409 Million in Q1 beats the previous high of $399 Million posted in Q1 2004. And, this is 15% higher than this century’s low of $190 Million in Q1 2009.

Median Sold Price

The median sold price in Q1 was $374 thousand dollars. Quarter-to-Quarter, the median price was Down 4% from Q4. More interesting and more important is that, Year-to-Year, the median price was UP an amazing 9% from Q1 2016.

Shown are the Quarterly Median Sold Prices since 2013. Year-to-Year, median sold prices have gone UP in 16 of the last 18 quarters. At $374K this Q1 has the highest median price since 2007. Note, it is still 4% lower than the highest Q1 ever –$390K in Q1 2006.

I also follow three other price indicators.

The total number of listings Under Contract has gone Down for the first time in 2 years. This is mostly likely the result of the seasonally high sales in Q1. This is a key indicator for both Price and Sales.

The median Price-Per-Square-Foot went UP again in Q1. This is the 16th increase in the last 18 quarters.

Although the changes are subtle, Sold Price -to- Original List Price Ratio is a useful predictor of future prices. It has now gone UP 8 quarters in a row. The last Q1 that was higher than 94.5% was in 2005.

Number of Sales

The number of single family homes sold in Barnstable County in Q1 was 803. Sales were Down 32% from Q4. I call it the Q1 DiP. But, the more important and GOOD NEWS is that, Q1 sales were Up a whopping 14% from Q1 2016.

Here are the Quarterly Sales numbers since 2013. Note, Sales always decline from Q4 to Q1. This Q1 DiP has happened every year in this century – with an average decline of 24%. Year-to-Year, Sales have now gone UP in each of the last 10 quarters. At 803 this Q1 had the highest number of sales since 2004.

It’s also interesting to look at three other market indicators that either affect the number of sales, or are affected by the number of sales.

Inventory is the total number of active listings at the END of a quarter. At the end of Q1 Inventory was down 16% from Q4 – and Down 22% from Q1 2016. This is the lowest inventory since Q1 2004.

Now let’s Debunk a Myth: It’s commonly believed that when inventory is low sales will be down, i.e., inventory drives sales. Well, Inventory has gone Down in each of the last 10 quarters –  BUT, as you saw on the previous slide, Sales have gone UP in each of the last 10 quarters. Seems like Sales is driving Inventory.

Note, there are different ways to calculate the Absorpti0n Rate. I recently made two changes that yield somewhat lower Absorption Rates. Year -to-Year, the Absorption Rate went DOWN in each of the last 9 quarters – this is good thing for sellers. The Q1 rate of 4.2 months is also the lowest since Q1 2004.

During the last two quarters it not only felt like we were in a seller’s market, we OFFICIALLY were in a seller’s market.

Year-to-Year, the Total number of listings Under Contract was Down 10%. Previously, it had gone UP in each of the last 7 Quarters.

Forecast

Before I give you my forecast for Q2 2017 – let’s review the previous forecast for Q1 2017. My goal for these forecasts is to be within + or – 5% of the actual result.

My forecast for the median sold price in Q1 was $382,000. The actual result was: $374,000 – 2% LESS than my forecast.

My forecast for number of sales in Q1 was 853. The actual number – 803 was 5.9% lower than my forecast.

Price: I believe that the Median Sold Price will jump upward again in Q2. My forecast for the median sold price in Q2 is: $403,000 dollars.

Quarter-to-Quarter, it will be Up 8% from Q1. This would be the 15th time in 18 years that the median Price went UP from Q1 to Q2. More importantly, Year-to-Year, the median sold price will be Up 9% from Q2 2016. This could be the highest Q2 Price since 2006.

Sales: Like each and every year, there was a Q1 Sales DiP this year. My forecast for the number of sales in Q2 is: 1,261.

Quarter-to-Quarter, this would be UP 57% – which is not an uncommon change from Q1 to Q2. But, now the surprising news. I expect that high prices may drive Year-to-Year sales DOWN.  At 1,261 sales would be Down 7% from Q2 2016.

Summary:

If you have any questions or comments about this report please call my cell:

508-277-1000

OR send an email to:

Bill@BillSilver.com

You can see all my reports at:

Bill Silver Reports .com

Or, go to my YouTube Channel:

Cape Real Bill

Thanks for watching – and wishing you smooth sailing on the seas of life.